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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
DEL SPINA ENTERPRISES
428 ACRE TRACT
LOCATION MILE MARKER 38 ON KY HWY 80
SOMERSET, KY
PROPOSED AFFECT WITH & WITHOUT
COMPLETION OF I-66 INTERCHANGE

      Del Spina Properties LLC, a southern Kentucky real estate development company, owns approximately 424 acres of property at existing Kentucky Highway 80 (KY 80) and a proposed I-66 interchange to be located approximately 19 miles east of the recently completed I-66 interchange just north of Somerset, KY (U.S. 27) and only only13 miles west to the existing KY 80 - I-75 interchange in London, KY.

      This 424-acre parcel includes 300 acres on the north side of existing KY 80, with the additional 124 acres located directly across on KY 80 south side of the existing road. Each of the properties contains 2,000 feet of frontage along existing highway. KY 80.

      The completion of the proposed I-66 freeway is of national priority and the thirty-plus mile segment of the planned Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) will hopefully be constructed between Somerset and London as federal funds become available in the foreseeable future.

      The Kentucky portion of the proposed coast-to-coast U.S. East-West Transamerica Corridor is one of several interstate freeway corridors identified in the 1991 Federal "Intermodel Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA)". The East-West Transamerica Corridor was proposed to be located between the existing cross-country I-70 and I-40 freeway corridors, having an eastern terminus in Virginia and a western terminus in southern California.

      A 1994 assessment of the proposed interstate freeway corridors entitled the "Transamerica Transportation Corridor Feasibility Study", concluded that the
East-West Transamerica coast-to-coast corridor, in its entirety, did not meet economic feasibility criteria necessary to fund the project, however, segments of the corridor were deemed more important from a state and/or regional perspective, and should therefore be considered for development. Given this finding, the 1997 Kentucky Transportation Center concluded that the proposed Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) segment was economically feasible; thus, plans are now in place to build this Kentucky corridor segment to serve a number of communities positioned along the corridor from Bowling Green in western Kentucky to the Pikeville area in far eastern as funding becomes appropriated for this project. Much of this planned Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) will use existing right-of-ways of the Louie B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway to the west and the Hal Rogers Parkway to the east with the Somerset to London segment being considered of highest priority since it "fills in the gap" between the two existing southern Kentucky parkways. Upon completion of this critical segment of the corridor, freeway standard limited access will be provided from I-65 in west-central Kentucky to I-75 in the east-central portion of the state.

I-66 / KY 80 Economic Assessments

     Del Spina Enterprises engaged engineering firm, QK4 to prepare a suggested interchange scenarios that:

  1. Will provide improved access to the Del Spina site.
  2. One that will allow for the best economic uses of the north and south portions of the subject property. The economic Report was submitted to the Highway Dept as a best match interchange scenarios. Del Spina Enterprises believes this report assisted in the final decision not to acquire any of the 428 acres and schedule an I-66 Interchange within a mile of this site.
  3.  

      Specifically, the analysis of this Report assisted us in making these determinations:

  1. Determine the development potential of the subject property without I-66.
  2. Determine the development potential for the subject property with our suggested recommendations to the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet.
  3. Determine the development potential for the subject property with the suggested QK4 Alternative interchange proposals that may be considered by the State agency.

      Three Primary Objectives Were Considered:

  1. Determine the development potential of the subject property without the benefits of I-66:
    The development options of Del Spina Enterprises including the potential usage for:
    - Highway oriented services including convenience/gasoline stores.
    - Industrial, distribution, or transportation oriented development.
    - A Destination Resort and recreation facilities.
    - Other property uses that could require roadway configuration permits.
  2. An assessment of development options that would be appropriate to the 300-acre north portion of the subject property given current interchange plans being considered as alternate routes, including the potential for:
    - Highway oriented services including convenience/gasoline stores, Restaurants, or hotels.
    - Industrial, distribution, or transportation oriented development.
    - Destination resort and recreation facilities.
    - Other property uses as the proposed interchange alignment allows.
  3. Third, to determine the development potential of the subject property reflecting a friendlier configuration to benefit subject tract that was proposed by QK4, including:
    An assessment of the positive impact on potential uses of the subject property reflecting the availability of most of the south portion of the subject property for development, and reflecting improved access to both the north and south portions of the subject property.
    An assessment of the development options that would be appropriate for the entire subject property given their suggested interchange relocation, including:
    - Highway oriented services including convenience/gasoline stores, restaurants, or hotels.
    - Industrial, distribution, or transportation oriented development.
    - Destination resort and recreation facilities.
    - Tourism-oriented retail including large outdoor recreation specialists, outlet or manufacturing retail stores, or other recreation oriented developments.
    - Specialized retail formats such as an auto-mall or other destination oriented retail uses.

 No Warranty Or Representation Is Made By Del Spina Enterprises Regarding Potential Success Of This Project,
Based On The Findings And Recommendations Of This Study.

Somerset, KY Micropolitan Area and Region of Influence

      The Del Spina's property is situated in the northeast sector of Pulaski County's KY Micropolitan Statistical Area. This Federal government classification includes 578 comparable areas of the U.S. containing at least one urban cluster of between 10,000 and 50,000 in a county or adjacent territory having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core city or urban cluster.

      The Somerset, KY Micropolitan Statistical Area is one of sixteen such designated areas in the state of Kentucky. Eight of these micropolitan statistical areas are located in south-central Kentucky. These include: Campbellsville (Taylor Co.), Corbin (Whitley Co.), Danville (Boyle & Lincoln Cos.), Glasgow (Barren & Metcalfe Cos.), London (Laurel Co.), Middlesboro (Bell Co.), Richmond (Madison & Rockcastle Cos.), and Somerset (Pulaski Co.). Of the eight south-central Kentucky micropolitan areas, five are directly linked via existing transportation arteries, with Somerset being the focal point. Glasgow, 70 miles west of Somerset, is connected to the Somerset vicinity via the Louie B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway. London and Corbin, located 30 and 40 miles to the easy respectively, are connected via KY 80 and I-75. Danville, 45 miles north, is connected to the Somerset area via U.S. 27. Comparative population, household, and income figures for these five micropolitan statistical areas are included in Table 1 found at the end of this report. Somerset, KY is located at the junction of U.S. 27 and KY Hwy 80 in south-central Kentucky. Due to the city's relatively central location on the Louie B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway and on U.S. 27, the Somerset, KY Micropolitan Statistical Area (Pulaski Co.) is the focal point and the economic center of a large eleven county region of south-central Kentucky. Somerset lies mid-way between the Daniel Boone National Forest to the east and Lake Cumberland to the southwest. The city is 70 miles south of Lexington, and 125 miles southeast of Louisville. Tennessee's state border lies approximately 50 miles to the south.

      The Somerset Micropolitan Statistical Area (Pulaski County) has shown consistent and steady growth for the past 15 years, increasing from a population of 59,052 in 2005 to 63,825 by mid-year 2015. The rate of increase of 8.08 percent is similar to that experienced by the U.S. over the same period. The Somerset micropolitan area is the largest of the five comparable micropolitan areas in south-central Kentucky.

      An estimated1.5 million travelers and tourists visit Pulaski County each year, primarily due to the recreation and fishing opportunities afforded by Lake Cumberland, one of the largest man-made lakes in the U.S. Lake Cumberland, located west and south of Somerset, was formed in the 1940's by damming a large section of the Cumberland River. Today, the 1,255 miles of Lake Cumberland shoreline support over 63,000 acres of surface water. Each year, per U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimates, over 4.7 visitors are attracted to the Lake Cumberland region or Somerset's region of influence due to multiple recreational activities provided by the lake. The Somerset Micropolitan Statistical Area supports a large regional hospital complex, and retailers in the market are important destination shopping locations for the over 300,000 persons living in the eleven county region. A significant amount of retail and service square footage in Pulaski County is supported by the dollars spent by the over 4.7 million annual recreational users visiting the greater Lake Cumberland region. In addition to typical retail stores found in the market, boat-servicing businesses, hotels, and restaurants all benefit from the recreational user dollar expenditures.

Pulaski/Laurel Counties Primary Market Area and Region of Influence

      A number of possible economic uses that could be developed on the Del Spina subject property, located 19 miles northeast of Somerset and only 13 miles west of London, adjacent to the proposed interchange planned I-66 and existing KY 80 and would benefit from the proximity of the subject property to both metropolitan areas, presuming adequate local and regional access will be provided through a properly conceived interchange between existing KY 80 and proposed I-66. With adequate local and regional access, a number of possible retail uses, highway oriented services, or industrial/distribution uses would be well positioned to serve residents of and visitors to both Pulaski County (Somerset) and Laurel County (London). As such, it is expected that the primary market area that would be served by any of these selected uses would include both counties. As of mid-2015, this two county primary market area was residence to 123,840 persons as well as the annual destination geography of over 1.5 million tourists and/or visitors. Any large, regionally oriented economic use developed on the Del Spina property would also be well positioned to serve the residents and tourists or visitors found within Somerset's eleven county region of influence. As noted in Section 2.1 of this report, this region is home to over 300,000 residents, and is an area currently attracting over 4.7 million tourists and/or visitors in any given year.

Economic Overview of Primary Market Area and Region of Influence

      Of the five metropolitan areas compared in this report, Somerset and London are clearly the most dominant retail centers of south-central Kentucky. London (Laurel County), according to 2007 Census of Retail Trade data, is the leader in total retail sales, with Somerset (Pulaski County) a close second. Both Laurel and Pulaski counties' retail sales are significantly higher than experienced in the remaining three-micropolitan areas. Combined, the London and Somerset micropolitan areas accounted for almost 57 percent of the retail sales generated in Somerset's eleven county region of influence. In 2007, total retail sales in these two primary market area counties approached $1.8 billion, up from slightly over $1.4 billion in 2002. Accommodation and food services sales in Laurel County at $91 million, and in Pulaski County at $73 million, far surpassed sales experienced in that retail category in each of the remaining south-central Kentucky micropolitan areas. Gasoline sales in Laurel County were more than double those in Pulaski County, and even Corbin (Whitley County) experienced higher sales than those in Pulaski County. The primary reason for the high gasoline sales figures in both Laurel County and Whitley County is that I-75, one of the two key north-south Kentucky interstate highways, passes through each of the counties.

      The Somerset and London micropolitan areas (Pulaski and Laurel counties) account for approximately 20 percent each of the total work force and total employment of the eleven county region of influence. Of total employment in the region as of April 2015 (87,430), Pulaski County employed 24,415, and Laurel County employed 21,936. Together, the two counties, with a total employment figure of 46,351, accounted for 53 percent of the total employment of 87,430 for the five county region.

      As indicated, tourism is a very important economic component of the eleven county region. Per figures provided by the Kentucky Department of Tourism, the more than 1.5 million with a combined retail sales in Laurel & Pulaski Counties spent $1.5 billion dollars in 2014.

Traffic Volume Comparisons Relative to Development Potential

      The traffic volumes in the vicinity of the subject property has been increasing steadily over the past 20 years as a result of the increased economic activity in the region to over 8,000-vehicle average daily traffic count on KY 80 represents the amount of through traffic between [RFD1]Somerset and London. This volume is similar to those on portions of Louis B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway west of Somerset as well as the Hal Rogers Parkway east of London. The east extension of the Louis B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway is now completed on the north of Somerset. This will provide a new limited access freeway connection between the parkway just west of Somerset to KY 80 northeast of Somerset.

      The completion of this bypass should increase regional traffic on KY 80 (and eventually proposed I-66) by making this east-west route more convenient to travelers and commuters. The limited access Louis B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway, and the Hal Rogers Parkway have been incorporated into the proposed I-66 project plans. The recently completed Somerset-Louis B. Nunn Cumberland Parkway segment of I-66 has significantly increased traffic in this corridor by providing a good freeway route from Somerset, Hwy 27 west to Bowling Green -Glasgow. Completion of the proposed extension of I-66 to West Virginia would significantly increase traffic by providing a new alternative route for cross-country U.S. travelers.

Development Potential Based on (I-66) Not Ever Constructed

      The analysis of the development potential assuming that the thirty-plus mile Somerset to London segment of the planned Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) will not be constructed, and that the existing KY 80 roadway remains as is. This hypothetical "base case" is a key assumption to this development analysis, since there has been no commercial development activity occurring on the Del Spina site from 1997, when the Kentucky Transportation Center determined that the Southern Kentucky Corridor segment of the I-66 East-West Transamerica Corridor was feasible.
The uncertainty of whether or not the proposed East-West Transamerica Corridor (I-66) and the subsequent Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) would be constructed, or where the closest exit would be relative to the Del Spina Tract raised concern as to the affect (I-66) would have after the completion of a complex like the Miracle Mile Complex.

      The final decision to locate the (I-66) interchange one mile west of the Del Spina tract not only eliminates the acquit ion of any subject tract also eliminates the need to acquire road easements as the State already has sufficient rights for additional lanes. By providing a service road directly into the subject complex, additional lanes for (I-66). The assurance a service road, from the interchange leading directly into the Del Spina Tract would eliminate any land lock concerns for the Complex.

      Retail uses require easy access for their customers. Few if any retail businesses would be interested in any site with significant unknowns or limitations on access to their establishments.

      Non-retail commercial uses such as industrial, wholesale, and warehouse uses also require good local and regional access for moving supplies and/or shipping product.
Once eliminating the negative impact of these unknowns of the I-66 project on commercial development potential is resolved before any start up construction would begin, by obtaining assurance that the final interchange would compliment the Complex and no acquisition of the Del Spina property would be a consideration. Although (I-66) final plans can always be changed and projects abandoned, no committed funds or construction would be implemented until these issues were totally resolved.

      In addition, even if the final plans provide for good access, revenues generated by any business located on the subject site could be greatly impacted by road construction activity. Even with continually increasing traffic volumes on KY 80, this uncertainty has not only impacted the subject site, but has also negatively impacted the potential for development at other locations along KY 80 in northeast Pulaski County.

     The subject site, as currently configured, two access points are currently provided to the north portion of the site, including one opposite Chimney Rock Church Road and the other at the west end of the property. The north portion of the Del Spina site borders the Daniel Boone National Forest. Most of the traffic on this segment of KY Hwy 80 is through traffic between Somerset to the west, and London and the I-75 freeway corridor to the east.

      The volume of traffic on KY 80 in the vicinity of the proposed site has been increasing steadily over the past 20 years as a result of the increased economic activity in the region. The current average daily traffic count at the site exceeds 8,000. This represents an increase of 93% from the 3,960 in 1985. [RFD2] It is anticipated that traffic volumes will continue to increase in the future even if the proposed thirty plus mile segment of I-66 between Somerset and London is never built.

      Under the assumption the Somerset to London segment of I-66 will never be built the Del Spina property has many economic uses even in a rural area that exists in northeast Pulaski County with its present highway connection where significant highway connection exists:

      Highway oriented services currently found in Pulaski County, Laurel County, and the eleven county regions currently list over 140 gasoline station/convenience stores located in the eleven county region. Nearly 65 of these stores are located in the primary market area (Pulaski and Laurel counties). The closest highway oriented service retail establishment to the east of the Del Spina site is a gasoline station/convenience store located about four miles west of London. The traffic volumes adjacent to this existing store are similar to those at the subject site.

      The ability to support this type of highway oriented service use is demonstrated by the location of two service station/convenience stores along the 18 mile section of KY Highway 461 (KY 461) between Mt. Vernon and its intersection with KY 80 east of Somerset. Traffic volumes in the mid-portion of this section of KY 461 are lower than those counts near the proposed site.

      The most likely location for highway oriented retail uses, such as service station/convenience stores, would be on the Del Spina Phase I, north portion of the property as that portion of the property is relatively flat, would have the most convenient access, and would offer the best visibility to KY 80 traffic.

      There would be potential for the development of highway oriented retail uses under the scenario that assumes no plans for the construction of the I-66 segment between Somerset and London.

Industrial or Distribution Development

      As with highway oriented service retail uses, there could also be the potential for the development of industrial and distribution oriented uses on the proposed site under the assumption no (I-66) scenario. There are a number of these types of uses assuming adequate utilities are provided. Industrial, distribution, or transportation uses do require good highway access and KY 80 currently provides that access.

      Since the Del Spina property is one of the few properties located along KY 80 northeast of Somerset that is developable, it is conceivable that if the I-66 Somerset to London segment is never built, this subject property holding could offer the development opportunity for industrial, distribution, or transportation oriented uses.

Destination Resort and Recreational Facilities

      The northern portion of the subject site has a number of advantages as a possible location for destination type resort and recreation facilities. The types of facilities that could be developed include a resort motel use including recreational facilities such a water park, stables, and trails; resort cabins, either in or near the forest area or along the river at the north edge of the property; or a recreational vehicle park (RV park) and campground that could individually be stand-alone developments or be part of a larger resort complex. The Del Spina site's location in a part of Kentucky having great natural beauty as well as the tourist draw of Lake Cumberland, and its location adjacent to the Daniel Boone National Forest is advantageous for the development of destination type resort and recreations facilities. These facilities could be enhanced through agreements with the National Forest for additional hiking or horseback trails, and through the upgrading of the present informal canoe and Kayak launch site on the Rockcastle River to the north and east of the site.

      The proposed I-66 freeway could, assuming convenient access is provided from the freeway to the subject site, provide much improved access to large portions of south-central Kentucky and northern Tennessee.

Assuming Completion of Proposed I-66

      Assuming that convenient access and visibility is provided between proposed
I-66 and existing KY 80, the completion of the high priority Somerset to London segment of the Southern Kentucky Corridor should increase the development potential on the subject site for highway oriented retail uses. The completion of the key segment between Somerset and London should increase traffic flow all along the Southern Kentucky Corridor, since a fully completed limited access freeway would then provide a connection from I-65 in southwestern Kentucky to I-75 in south-central Kentucky. In addition to attracting more long distance travelers, increased traffic should also occur due to continued Somerset-London economic growth.

      The development of the I-66 route, as is true with all freeways, can result in less competitive locations since all highway oriented uses must locate near an interchange. This contrasts to ordinary highways where highway oriented retail stores can be located anywhere along the route and can result in long highway commercial strips. The Somerset to London freeway segment in combination with the north Somerset bypass may cut off many existing KY 80 highway oriented retail stores from the through I-66 traffic. This is offset somewhat by the increased opportunities at major interchanges such as those that will be provided with the planned I-66 and U.S. 27 interchange as well as at this proposed I-66 and KY 80 connection.

I-66 / KY 80 Economic Impact Assessment

     
If the Alternative 1 type of interchange is constructed, with the good access and visibility provided by this alternative, and with increased traffic resulting from the upgrade to freeway status, there should be sufficient market potential to support a gasoline station/convenience store and a highway oriented restaurant at the subject property. Support for an economy or mid-priced motel will depend upon how many long distance travelers could be attracted to the new Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) route. The completion of the extension of I-66 through West Virginia to Virginia could attract many more cross-country travelers, which would lead to increased market potential for the development of a motel facility on the subject property.

Industrial and Distribution Development

     
Good access to the proposed I-66 freeway and subsequent regional access to both the I-65 and I-75 corridors should make the Del Spina site more attractive to industrial, distribution, and transportation related economic uses. Wholesalers and distributors, in particular, need good access to a well-developed transportation system. This alternative therefore should enhance the possibility of attracting these types of uses to the subject property. With the Del Spina property being one of the few properties in northeast Pulaski County offering flat developable land, the completion of an interchange similar in design to Alternative 1 as proposed by QK4, this property could be very attractive for the development of this type of economic use. If properly conceived, this proposed interchange would be only one of two interchanges provided east of Somerset, and would be the first interchange provided west of Laurel County, the home of London to the east.

Destination Resort and Recreation Facilities

      The completion of the Somerset to London segment of I-66 will increase the attractiveness of the subject site for destination resort and recreational facility development. Convenient access to the proposed I-66 freeway will not necessarily contribute to an increase in the number of longer term guests, but this access will provide overnight and possibly limited weekly or weekend oriented supplemental business for motel rooms, restaurants, a water park, and an RV park and campground. This supplemental source of business increases the market potential in total for these destination and recreational economic uses.

Tourism Oriented Retail Including Outdoor Recreation Specialists

      The completion of the high priority Somerset to London segment of I-66 with an interchange of I-66 and KY 80 interchange that provides adequate local access to the subject property, will create an attractive location for the possible development of a destination tourist oriented economic use. Completion of the entire I-66 corridor through eastern Kentucky to West Virginia would make this potentiality even more attractive. Providing a proposed interchange per the design principals of Alternative 1, as submitted by QK4, furnishes desirable access to and from I-66 and existing KY 80, which could enhance the potential for the location of a large recreation oriented outdoor sporting goods retailer such as Bass Pro, Cabela's, or Grander Mountain. Each of the above listed retail strategies provide an extensive product offering of hunting, fishing, marine, and camping merchandise, supplemented by a large collection of casual and outdoor apparel and footwear in a large "one-stop" retail environment. Given the extensive collection of these specialized retail categories, each of these retail specialists requires access to a large number of potential customers generally residing over a large geographic area. Geographic areas offering recreational outdoor opportunities, such as are available in the south-central Kentucky region, are especially attractive, since potential users of the products offered by these retail specialists will either be residing in the area served by the these specialists or will be visiting that geographic area to experience the outdoor activity for which the products are offered. Primary market areas served by any one of these outdoor specialists could range from 25 to over 50 miles. As such, comparable population numbers for 25, 40 and 50-mile radius areas around the subject property and around comparable locations for these retail specialists were generated as part of this economic use assessment. The development potential for the subject property within 25, 40, and 50 miles of the subject site is greater than that for many of the radii served from existing locations of the outdoor recreation specialists. The population numbers are over 550,000 residing within 50 miles of the subject property. This number is greater than that found within 50 miles of fourteen of the comparable existing store locations. Only three Grander Mountain locations serve 50-mile radius areas having a greater population base than what is present in that radius of the subject property.

      Note, the populations for the selected radii of the subject property do not include tourist or visitor population. As pointed out earlier in this report, this tourist/visitor base is quite substantial, with over 4.7 million visitors estimated to annually frequent the eleven county Somerset region of influence. Spending by this group of visitors would enhance the retail expenditure potential at the subject property. None of the above noted outdoor retail specialists has a store in close proximity to south-central Kentucky or specifically to the subject property. Bass Pro's closest store is located in Kodak, TN, approximately 150 miles southeast of Somerset. Cabela's closest store is located in Bowling Green, KY, over 110 miles to the southwest. Grander Mountain's nearest store location is in Bowling Green, KY, over 110 miles to the southwest. Thus based upon an analysis of probable market potential, and due to the lack of representation of any one of these specialists within 100 miles, the possibility exists that the subject property could be a very acceptable location to any one of these retail specialty operations. It would appear that the potential retail sales opportunity provided by the expenditure potential of the region's population and the supplemental tourist/visitor population could at least match the retail spending potential of many of these selected outdoor retail specialist's store locations, and perhaps surpass the potential of a number of those locations.

Potential Economic Benefits of Development Scenarios

      Any one of the proposed economic uses suggested as possibilities under the interchange designs outlined will provide direct and indirect (reflecting a multiplier effect) economic benefits to the communities of northeast Pulaski County. These economic benefits of new development will primarily be a product of increased employment providing increased payroll dollars and increased property tax revenues. The amount of economic benefit will depend upon the amount and type of development that is attracted to the site. In this report, only the direct benefits of the proposed Del Spina property developments are outlined. Indirect benefits, which could be the product of additional development beyond that provided in the Del Spina property, are not provided. Employment projections assumptions noted below include both full-time and part-time employment.

Economic Benefits - Employment

      The amount of employment generated by new development on the Del Spina
Property depends on the type and size of the development. Most of the development scenarios provided above include retail uses as a major component of the development. Normal employment ratios for most general merchandise oriented retail developments assume two to three employees per 1,000 square feet of retail space. Supermarkets and restaurants usually have higher staffing needs and will more likely average three to four employees per 1,000 square feet of space. Highway oriented hotel or resort hotel employment will depend upon the level of service and types of activities that are provided for guests. Economy travel motels will usually average one employee for every three or four rooms. Resort oriented hotels that include restaurants and recreation facilities in their developments will need more employees on a per room basis. Based upon these employment ratios, it is probable that a major outdoor recreation specialty retailer with 200,000 square feet of retail space could conservatively generate 400 to 500 new jobs. Ancillary highway oriented retail facilities and ancillary retail uses reflecting the development of a large destination oriented retail store such as this could increase the level of employment under this development scenario. A destination type resort providing a range of recreational activities would also generate substantial employment similar to that of the recreation specialty retailer. Employment generated by other development scenarios would depend upon the number and type of developments provided under any one of the scenarios.

Economic Benefits - Property Tax Revenues

      The development of the Del Spina property pursuant to any of the development scenarios will increase the market value of the proposed site and the resulting property tax revenues. The assessed market value (cash sale value) will vary based on size, type and quality of construction, and economic viability of the proposed use. Retail and other commercial property is normally valued on the capitalization of rental income (assumed rent for owner occupied space) assuming market rents and expenses. The current property tax rate in Pulaski County (outside of Somerset) is $7.33 per thousand of value. The probable assessed market value (in 2006 dollars) of possible future retail development will likely range from $70 to $75 per square foot. This amount will depend on type and quality of construction and interior improvements. As an illustrative of potential property tax revenues, a 200,000 square foot retail complex would, at $75 per square foot, have a value of $15 million and, at current tax rates, and would provide about $110,000 annually in real estate taxes. Ancillary development would increase the total amount of property taxes generated by business entities operating on the property. Tax revenues generated under the other development scenarios will depend upon the amount, type, and quality of improvements provided under each scenario

Summary - Interchange Development Scenario

      The current DOT suggested (I-66) interchange plan best benefits Del Spina's Tract and will provide the optimum economic development. Employment and tax revenues provided under any one of the interchange development scenarios will depend upon what economic uses are provided under any one of the scenarios.

Summary and Conclusions

      The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet's current recommended (KY 80 I-66) interchange, only one mile from the Del Spina Tract can be routed to the complex via a service road provided by the DOT. This will eliminate any need for DOT acquisition of the Del Spina tract. The DOT has sufficient easement rights to expand lanes on KY 80 to provide sufficient lanes required for completion of (I_66).

      The Del Spina property, located at the existing KY 80 and proposed I-66 interchange, is well located with respect to both the Somerset and London micropolitan areas (Pulaski and Laurel counties). These two micropolitan areas (combined populations of 123,840) are the economic hubs to an eleven county region of south-central Kentucky containing a population of 232,197.

      Traffic volumes on the existing KY 80 that fronts both sides of the Del Spina tract have been steadily climbing over the past 20 years to over 8,000 vehicles per day due to increased economic activity in the region. However, potentially [RDF3] higher traffic counts have been restricted due to the lack of a limited access parkway connecting with the Louis B. Nunn Cumberland west of Somerset with I-75 and the Hal Rogers Parkway in London will be eliminated whenever (I-66) is built.

      This interchange scenario will enhance the potential for the location of a large recreation oriented outdoor sporting goods retailer such as Bass Pro, Cabela's, or Grander Mountain. With a present population of over 230,000 within 50 miles, (Without the 1.5 mil tourism) together with regional access being provided by the completion of the Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) between I-65 to the west and I-75 to the east, any one of the sporting goods specialists would serve a population at least equal if not greater than served by selected existing stores. The 1.5 million tourists/visitors frequenting this south-central Kentucky region will also enhance the volume potential for any one of these strategies.

What if: I-66 Not Built

      If the uncertainty of plans regarding the Somerset to London segment of the proposed Southern Kentucky Corridor (I-66) is concluded: it will not be built, the potential development of a gasoline station/convenience store, attached restaurant, industrial distribution, a smaller scale type resort, development of a transportation type economic use becomes a strong reality, as the Del Spina property is one of very few flat and developable parcels all along the KY 80 corridor between Somerset and London that contain the acreage necessary to such a venture..

4.3 Recommendations

      The final decision of the DOT, joining, KY Highway 80 with (I-66) and designating an interchange one mile from the Del Spina north side should resolve the concern of DOT acquisition of any part of the Del Spina tract. As laid out at present, the interchange configuration will support the greatest amount of economic activity, will reflect the highest and best use available to the site, and will be of highest economic benefit.

VOLUME VEHICLE TRAFFIC ON KY. HWY-80 TRAVELING BETWEEN I-75 & Hwy 27

Count Location

Station ID

Route

Begin Mile Marker

End Mile Marker County # of Cars Traveled Year

8 Miles West of the 914
Intersection

100821

100-LN-9008 -000 78.349 86.17 Pulaski 7,926 2014
1 Mile Past Shopville Park
and School
100221 100-KY-0080 -000 27.619 31.372 Pulaski 7,350 2012
3 Miles Past Stab
Community
100001 100-KY-0080 -000 31.372 37.687 Pulaski 5,914 2013
Miracle Mile Mall Complex 63828 100-KY-0080 -000 37.687 39.682 Pulaski 6,124 2012
Starts at Pulaski
County Line to 3.5 mile into Laurel County
63828 063-KY-0080 -000 0 3.689 Laurel 6,124 2012
* Wal-Mart  Distribution Center 
6 Miles from Del Spina Tract
63857 063-KY-0080 -000 7.516 9.975 Laurel 18,652 2014
Last Mile on 
KY 80 Before I-75 Exits
063A65 063-KY-0080 -000 9.975 10.661 Laurel 19,133 2013
** Traffic Count on I-75 Passing the 
London Highway 80 Interchange
63829 063-I -0075 -000 38.187 40.704 Laurel 52,970 2014
 
* Volume Count 6 miles from Del Spina Tract Due to Activities at Wal-Mart
 
** Actual traffic Count on I-75 Passing London, KY exit at Highway 80
 
Location of Data 66-80 Traffic Count I-75 TO HWY 27

 

POPULATION

Major City

Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow

Year

Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Barren Co.
1990 49,489 43,438 33,326 25,641 31,001
2000 56,217 52,715 36,865 27,697 38,033
2005 59,052 57,008 37,971 27,990 39,743
2010 63,063 58,849 35,637 28,420 42,173
2013 63,688 59,681 35,586 29,588 43,046
2014 63,825 60,015 35,503 29,706 43,148
2015          

 

PERCENT CHANGES
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 1.2% 2.0% -0.4% 4.5% 2.3%
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014 1.0% 1.4% -0.1% 4.1% 2.1%

HOUSEHOLDS
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2009 - 2013 26,108 22,931 13,172 11,100 16,584

 

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2009 - 2013 $34,092 $36,570 $29,769 $41,473 $38,873

 

PER CAPITA MONEY INCOME
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2009 - 2013 $20,667 $19,923 $15,960 $22,249 $19,745

 

RETAIL SALES
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2007 $88,439,100,000 $91,473,900,000 $37,332,900,000 $43,002,100,000 $55,294,100,000

 

ACCOMMODATION and FOOD SERVICE SALES
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2007 $7,349,200,000 $9,103,200,000 $3,925,200,000 $5,7772,500,000 $6,466,900,000

 

EMPLOYED
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2014 24,380 23,944 12,321 11,373 17,632
2015 24,415 21,936 12,220 11,367 17,492

 

UNEMPLOYED
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2014 1,945 1,828 1,176 854 1,195
2015 1,401 1,326 811 611 839

 

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)
Major City Somerset London Corbin Danville Glasgow
Year Range Pulaski Co. Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
2014 7.4 7.6 8.7 7.0 6.3
2015 5.4 5.7 6.2 5.1 4.6

 

SERVICE TYPES
Service Pulaski Co Laurel Co. Whitley Co. Boyle Co. Barren Co.
Grocery Stores 17 16 9 7 10
Super Centers 1 2 1 1 0
Convenience Store (No Gas) 4 1 4 1 3
Convenience Store (With Gas) 31 29 20 17 29
Full Service Restaurants 23 30 13 23 30

 

SOURCES
Laurel County: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/21/21125.html
Pulaski County: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/21/21199.html
Whitley County: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/21/21235.html
Boyle County: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/21/21021.html
Barren County: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/21/21009.html
Pulaski Employment: http://www.thinkkentucky.com/cmnty/workforce.aspx?cw=116
Laurel Employment: http://www.thinkkentucky.com/cmnty/workforce.aspx?cw=055
Boyle Employment: http://www.thinkkentucky.com/cmnty/workforce.aspx?cw=114
Whitley Employment: http://www.thinkkentucky.com/cmnty/workforce.aspx?cw=110
Barren Employment: http://www.thinkkentucky.com/cmnty/workforce.aspx?cw=062
http://somersetpulaskichamber.com/fact-sheet/
http://www.city-data.com/county/Barren_County-KY.html
http://www.city-data.com/county/Boyle_County-KY.html
http://www.city-data.com/county/Laurel_County-KY.html
http://www.city-data.com/county/Pulaksi_County-KY.html
http://www.city-data.com/county/Whitley_County-KY.html

Pulaski/Laurel/ Others
2004 26,661 25,881 131,895
Table 7
2005 POPULATION COMPARISONS
25, 40, AND 50-MILE RADII
CABELA'S, BASS PRO, AND GRANDER MOUNTAIN EXISTING STORES
25 Miles 40 Miles 50 Miles
Proposed Site I-66 & KY 80 178,332 365,009 551,715
Cabela's
Sidney, NE 11,765 41,921 50,196
Mitchell, SD 29,465 48,762 86,503
Prairie du Chien, WI 52,830 133,053 326,910

Kearney, NE 60,416 127,416 191,117
East Grand Forks, MN 82,963 111,550 140,746
Bass Pro
Islamorado, FL 21,244 142,996 501,745
Columbia, MO 219,870 357,841 419,683
Grander Mountain
Bemidji, MN 51,002 78,967 97,743
Marquette, MI 62,028 74,052 86,164
Baxter, MN 78,893 137,884 194,754
Mankato, MN 127,641 298,016 568,085
Traverse City, MI 144,555 223,577 291,546
Paducah, KY 147,175 274,317 448,860
Eau Claire, WI 186,270 259,642 365,341
Terre Haute, IN 191,714 342,591 533,413
Williamsport, PA 209,207 405,094 600,939
Salisbury, MD 243,457 451,943 596,386

Sources: U.S. Census of Retail Trade 1997, 2014;
Sources: U.S Census of Retail Trade 1997, 20114;